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Mortgage Apps Dragged Down by Purchases; Refis Rebound as Rates Drop
Even though mortgage interest rates decreased again, the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Market Composite Index continued to see-saw, falling off slightly last week from the strong improvement it had shown the week before. The Index, a measure of mortgage application volume, was down 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended September 27 after a better than 5 percent increase the week before. On an unadjusted basis the Index decreased 1 percent compared to the week ended September 20.
While applications for refinancing climbed, it wasn't enough to overcome the week's decline in applications for home purchases. MBA's seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was down 6 percent as was the unadjusted version of the index. The latter was off 3 percent from its level during the same week in 2012.
Refinancing increased 3 percent and
63 percent of all mortgage applications received
during the week were for refinancing compared to 61
percent the week before. This was refinancing's
largest market share since August.
Average contract interest rates for all of the
products MBA tracks through its Weekly Mortgage
Application Survey fell back to June 2015 levels
last week. All effective rates were also down from
the week before.
The contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM)
with conventional balances of $417,000 or less was
4.49 percent with 0.34 point. The previous week that
rate had averaged 4.62 percent with 0.41 point.
The jumbo version of the 30-year FRM (loan balances
over $417,000) decreased to 4.53 percent from 4.66
percent. Points decreased to 0.22 from 0.29.
FHA-backed 30-year FRM had an average contract rate
of 4.21 percent, down 11 basis points from the week
before. Points decreased to 0.35 from 0.37.
Fifteen-year FRM fell an average of 13 basis points
to 3.55 percent. Points for the 15-year did increase
from 0.28 to 0.33 but the effective rate still fell.
The share of applications for adjustable rate
mortgages (ARMs) was down from 7 to 6 percent. The
average interest rate for the 5/1 ARM decreased to
3.26 percent from 3.39 percent and points from 0.35
to 0.28.
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How Has DC Shutdown Really Affected The Mortgage Market?
Lenders have had three days to digest
Tuesday's partial Federal government shutdown, and
while loan processing has been affected, the impact
has not been as severe as originators feared or as
has been reported elsewhere. While some loan types
at some lenders are at a standstill, they are the
exception.
Government-insured loans (FHA, VA, USDA) were
naturally at the most risk, but the two biggest
agencies are conducting business as usual. "FHA
Connection" (the portal through which all FHA loans
must pass) is operable; case numbers can be obtained
and appraisals can be ordered. VA lending similarly
continues to operate as normal. That leaves the USDA
as the only agency unable to approve or process
loans as the "GUS" underwriting system is down.
There are government-related considerations
even for loans not insured by a government agency.
For instance, federal flood insurance cannot be
obtained due to FEMA closing, so purchase loans in
flood zones are delayed. On the borrower's side of
the equation, government employees may face extra
hurdles in verifying income and employment, though
most lenders have set up workarounds.
Even those not employed by the government may
still receive income from Social Security. Borrowers
needing to acquire copies of their awards letters
will have difficulty as the Social Security
Administration has greatly reduced their staff. In
some cases, lenders must obtain confirmation of
their clients' Social Security numbers from the SSA,
and closings will be delayed in those cases.
Perhaps the biggest issue lenders face is the
inability to obtain tax return verifications (TRV's)
from the IRS to document the accuracy of borrowers'
W2's and tax returns. Many lenders are allowing
loans to be approved and closed without TRV's, which
will still have to be processed before those loans
can be sent to investors after closing. IRS Form
4506-T (request for tax transcript) is still
required to be in the file in most cases, and
different lenders have different policies informing
how it will be handled after the shutdown ends.
Overall, the impact on mortgage processing
and closings has been minimal to date, but jumbo
loans and self employed borrowers (or others with
complex income tax returns) may find lenders
unwilling to close their loans without IRS
verification of their income.
While agents, buyers, and sellers can breathe
a sigh of relief in most cases, it remains prudent
for borrowers to verify any impact on their specific
scenario with their loan officer.
Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher as Paralysis Continues
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, but
remained well within the extremely narrow range that
dominated the week. Conforming, 30yr fixed
best-execution remains at 4.25% with the losses
being seen primarily in the form of higher closing
costs or lower lender credit.
Wednesday's commentary, Mortgage Rates Paralyzed by
Uncertainty, noted that the government shutdown
headlines were more of a diversion compared to what
bond markets (which drive interest rates) are really
interested in: the official employment data. The
shutdown was relevant, however, in that it prevented
those numbers from being reported today!
This paved the way for the mortgage rate paralysis
to continue right through the end of the week. This
phenomenon isn't isolated to the mortgage world
either. The entire bond market (the Mortgage-backed
securities that influence mortgage rates are part of
this) has essentially ceased risking movement above
or below clearly defined ranges. Economists are
lamenting the absence of data as precluding the
decision-making process, and none of it is seen
ending until the shutdown does.
That hasn't been an altogether bad thing for the
mortgage world. While some loan processes have been
affected, most are able to proceed. Additionally,
incessantly flat rates at the best levels in 3
months never hurts. It also allows what had been a
fairly brisk three weeks of improvement to catch its
breath (which helps lenders margins stay tighter
than they otherwise would be, and tighter margins
are a net-benefit for rate sheets).
Bond markets will still be waiting on the employment
data, which has yet to be rescheduled (and can't be
until the shutdown is over). While this does help
keep rates from moving too much, the movement that
ensues may be abrupt--for better or worse.
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Wakefield RI 02879