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Mortgage Apps Dragged Down by Purchases; Refis Rebound as Rates Drop

 

Even though mortgage interest rates decreased again, the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Market Composite Index continued to see-saw, falling off slightly last week from the strong improvement it had shown the week before.  The Index, a measure of mortgage application volume, was down 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended September 27 after a better than 5 percent increase the week before. On an unadjusted basis the Index decreased 1 percent compared to the week ended September 20.

While applications for refinancing climbed, it wasn't enough to overcome the week's decline in applications for home purchases.  MBA's seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was down 6 percent as was the unadjusted version of the index.  The latter was off 3 percent from its level during the same week in 2012.

Refinancing increased 3 percent and 63 percent of all mortgage applications received during the week were for refinancing compared to 61 percent the week before. This was refinancing's largest market share since August.

Average contract interest rates for all of the products MBA tracks through its Weekly Mortgage Application Survey fell back to June 2015 levels last week. All effective rates were also down from the week before.

The contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) with conventional balances of $417,000 or less was 4.49 percent with 0.34 point. The previous week that rate had averaged 4.62 percent with 0.41 point.

The jumbo version of the 30-year FRM (loan balances over $417,000) decreased to 4.53 percent from 4.66 percent. Points decreased to 0.22 from 0.29.

FHA-backed 30-year FRM had an average contract rate of 4.21 percent, down 11 basis points from the week before. Points decreased to 0.35 from 0.37.

Fifteen-year FRM fell an average of 13 basis points to 3.55 percent. Points for the 15-year did increase from 0.28 to 0.33 but the effective rate still fell.

The share of applications for adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) was down from 7 to 6 percent. The average interest rate for the 5/1 ARM decreased to 3.26 percent from 3.39 percent and points from 0.35 to 0.28.

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How Has DC Shutdown Really Affected The Mortgage Market?

 

Lenders have had three days to digest Tuesday's partial Federal government shutdown, and while loan processing has been affected, the impact has not been as severe as originators feared or as has been reported elsewhere. While some loan types at some lenders are at a standstill, they are the exception.

Government-insured loans (FHA, VA, USDA) were naturally at the most risk, but the two biggest agencies are conducting business as usual. "FHA Connection" (the portal through which all FHA loans must pass) is operable; case numbers can be obtained and appraisals can be ordered. VA lending similarly continues to operate as normal. That leaves the USDA as the only agency unable to approve or process loans as the "GUS" underwriting system is down.

There are government-related considerations even for loans not insured by a government agency. For instance, federal flood insurance cannot be obtained due to FEMA closing, so purchase loans in flood zones are delayed. On the borrower's side of the equation, government employees may face extra hurdles in verifying income and employment, though most lenders have set up workarounds.

Even those not employed by the government may still receive income from Social Security. Borrowers needing to acquire copies of their awards letters will have difficulty as the Social Security Administration has greatly reduced their staff. In some cases, lenders must obtain confirmation of their clients' Social Security numbers from the SSA, and closings will be delayed in those cases.

Perhaps the biggest issue lenders face is the inability to obtain tax return verifications (TRV's) from the IRS to document the accuracy of borrowers' W2's and tax returns. Many lenders are allowing loans to be approved and closed without TRV's, which will still have to be processed before those loans can be sent to investors after closing. IRS Form 4506-T (request for tax transcript) is still required to be in the file in most cases, and different lenders have different policies informing how it will be handled after the shutdown ends.

Overall, the impact on mortgage processing and closings has been minimal to date, but jumbo loans and self employed borrowers (or others with complex income tax returns) may find lenders unwilling to close their loans without IRS verification of their income.

While agents, buyers, and sellers can breathe a sigh of relief in most cases, it remains prudent for borrowers to verify any impact on their specific scenario with their loan officer.

 

 

Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher as Paralysis Continues

 

Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, but remained well within the extremely narrow range that dominated the week. Conforming, 30yr fixed best-execution remains at 4.25% with the losses being seen primarily in the form of higher closing costs or lower lender credit.

Wednesday's commentary, Mortgage Rates Paralyzed by Uncertainty, noted that the government shutdown headlines were more of a diversion compared to what bond markets (which drive interest rates) are really interested in: the official employment data. The shutdown was relevant, however, in that it prevented those numbers from being reported today!

This paved the way for the mortgage rate paralysis to continue right through the end of the week. This phenomenon isn't isolated to the mortgage world either. The entire bond market (the Mortgage-backed securities that influence mortgage rates are part of this) has essentially ceased risking movement above or below clearly defined ranges. Economists are lamenting the absence of data as precluding the decision-making process, and none of it is seen ending until the shutdown does.

That hasn't been an altogether bad thing for the mortgage world. While some loan processes have been affected, most are able to proceed. Additionally, incessantly flat rates at the best levels in 3 months never hurts. It also allows what had been a fairly brisk three weeks of improvement to catch its breath (which helps lenders margins stay tighter than they otherwise would be, and tighter margins are a net-benefit for rate sheets).

Bond markets will still be waiting on the employment data, which has yet to be rescheduled (and can't be until the shutdown is over). While this does help keep rates from moving too much, the movement that ensues may be abrupt--for better or worse.

 

 



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